[This is just a repository for comments to other blogs, as described here.]

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Copies of comments from Corrente

Corrente has been down for a week and I wanted to link these three Corrente comments, so I'm reposting copies here.
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Corrente comment #1 posted by bungalowkitchens. Retrieved from Google cache.

I am in Oakland

By bungalowkitchens on Sat, 11/05/2011 - 12:49am

although I was not there in person (too many RL demands- and that's making me cranky because I would really like to be down there). I'm getting drowned in emails from the neighborhood listserv (I live a couple miles east of downtown), which could pretty much be summed up in this sentiment from one of them: "Anarchists can go to hell!" So at least among people in my neighborhood, the take is that these people are hurting the cause. I suspect the people vandalizing stuff are the same people who turned the Oscar Grant demonstrations into riots, and regardless of whether they are young testosterone-addled idiots, agent provocateurs, or cops in disguise- or all of the above (since it's not hard to get a testosterone-addled idiot to trash something, and the police save money on undercover cops that way. And yes, I watched the video, and a few of them were women. Women can be idiots too.)-they are definitely a fringe element and I think most people are disgusted with their tactics. I was pleased to see a couple of them being wrestled to the ground by other protestors, and protesters trying to keep them away from the buildings, and yelling things like "You're better than this!". But this sort of thing is going to be an ongoing problem for all of the Occupations.

I was so thrilled to see so many people marching peacefully and shutting down the port (see my earlier comment about ants). Oakland so rarely gets any positive press, and even though we have a lot of bravado about it, being dissed all the time gets old. Not to mention we know how much money it's costing us every time there's another "police riot" or whatever you want to call it. One of the downtown businesses damaged by the idiots was Oaklandish- a gallery that sells Oakland-centric merchandise. I believe they are a collective. After the general strike on Wednesday, many Oaklanders are making a very specific effort to patronize the local downtown businesses that have been impacted by the occupation. It's the least we can do.

Unfortunately, I see the tone of both the local and national media starting to turn against us, and all because of the violent actions of some.

Conformists die, but heretics live on forever.
Elbert Hubbard
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Corrente comment #2, posted by myself on 11/07/2011, retrieved from Google cache.

Violent flanks reduce participation/support


The term "radical" in the graph above actually means "violent", as in using violent tactics (i.e. the term should not be misinterpreted as meaning politically radical).

This is a graph from an analysis looking at participation in popular movements where only nonviolent tactics were used versus predominantly nonviolent campaigns that contained a flank using violence. The number of people that ended up participating in purely nonviolent campaigns is far higher. Analyses also suggest that there's a trend toward reduced success in campaigns that develop a violent flank (though the difference is not statistically significant, probably because the relatively low number of campaigns included in the analysis provided insufficient statistical power). Campaigns that remain entirely nonviolent in the face of violence from authorites (as opposed to those that develop a violent flank in response to violence from authorities) also appear to generate more democratic outcomes.

My primary point here is that empirically, deployment of black bloc tactics will reduce mass participation in and support for Occupy. And that's essentially consistent with a comment here at Corrente from Oaklander bungalowkitchens on Saturday [see above]: "I'm getting drowned in emails from the neighborhood listserv (I live a couple miles east of downtown), which could pretty much be summed up in this sentiment from one of them: 'Anarchists can go to hell!' So at least among people in my neighborhood, the take is that these people are hurting the cause....they are definitely a fringe element and I think most people are disgusted with their tactics."

[I'd prefer not to get mired here in tired semantic debates about the correct meaning of the term "violence". My point is merely that perception of certain BB tactics as violent (in contrast to nonviolent tactics or even Tute Blanche type tactics) would reduce public participation - and high levels of participation are essential for success of tactics such as port closures and strikes.]
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Corrente comment #3, posted by myself on11/14/11. Couldn't find a cached copy, so comment has been reconstructed here:


Since Nov 3, I'd seen various OO folks arguing that Black Bloc tactics had not cost OO support. That they were strong, and still had the full backing of the community.

E.g.
GonzOakland tweet from a few days ago:
#occupyoakland GA Speaker: "We are really strong, we can do whatever we want." ... Wrong.

From DailyKos comments

Mindtrain:
And I would add further, union support for OO Has been endangered by how the black bloc issue has been dealt with. I really don't think you are in reality about how much popular support OO has lost over the past few days alone.

mic check oakland:
What do you base your assertion on?

Mindtrain:
It's not a fringe issue if we're losing support
And we are. It is also not just in my mind nor those at the camp who are concered or were concerned nor any number of people within the occupation. This is not a MSM concoction. This is something from within the Occupation itself. To paint it as other is wishful thinking, dishonesty, or deliberate deception.

As for "my criteria," I wasn't aware that I had any such thing, other than actually dealing with the issue (which OO has not done).

It's fine if you want to be in denial about the problem, but don't blame me when you ask if there is support for a large scale coordinated action spearheaded by OO (in part) and I gave you an honest answer.m

mic check oakland:
I guess the feeling around the camp was that black bloc was an issue, but not as much of an issue as police violently beating members of Occupy. Also, I haven't got any sense that we were hemorrhaging support since the people of Oakland appear to support our perspective and we continue to have the most diverse group in the nation. OO doesn't have professional spokepeople so if you are getting your information from cable/national news, chances are that you're just hearing the point of view of the city government and local chamber of congress. I believe that part of what catilinus was referring to.

Factually, it's hard to know what our actual support is from residents of Oakland without polling data. And without that we're all just left to speculate until the camp is removed again by the police. If it is and we draw popular support, we will persist in retaking the camp. If nobody shows up and the camp is crushed than we probably won't have the numbers for another port strike.

I suppose we'll all have to wait and see. Thanks for your input.

Retyef:
I can only tell you my perspective
I attended the meeting after Scott Olsen got put in hospital by the cops, where a general strike was called, and marched half way to Berkeley and back.

I went to the (much smaller) gathering that discussed the peace proposal and voted overwhelmingly against it

I don't intend to go back if my participation simply acts as cover for those who commit violence.


Well, how did this all work out for those supporting inclusion of Black Bloc tactics?

October 25 - Typical crowd estimates for protests after the first camp raid - 3000-5000 people
Full backing for OO from multiple unions
OO GA that called the general strike - 1607 votes caste
At least 1,000 protesters held a candlelight vigil for Scott Olsen at Frank Ogawa Plaza.
For the General Strike march to the port on Nov 2, there are various crowd estimates - 40,000 is a common (and reasonable) one, though potentially up to 100,000.

The eviction on the morning of October 25 was a surprise raid. The raid this morning was telegraphed far in advance. An e-mail was sent out to parents with children in a neighborhood school stating that the raid would happen Monday morning. A winter homeless shelter was opened today, a day early, to accomodate people displaced by the raid. By mid-Sunday the papers were announcing that a raid was expected Monday morning. And definitive confirmation of this (that the raid would happen about 4 AM)was provided by OPD by 10:00 PM.

OO started putting out repeated calls for reinforcements throughout the day (website, tweets, e-mail, etc.), for people to show up to resist the raid (e.g. tweet: ALL OUT TONIGHT TO DEFEND #occupyoakland. #ows #occupysf #occupycal. Raid is all but certain early hours of the AM. baycitizen.org/occupy-movemen…). Started an #iamoccupyoakland hashtag campaign to really support, etc. During the weekend there were also frantic attempts to obtain meaningful union support to prevent the raid.

insidebayarea
MT @susie_c: #occupyoakland Two ppl read long solidarity letter from Mexico. I kind of expected a bigger crowd tonight; maybe coming later

susie_c Susie Cagle
Ppl seem to have been counting on union picket line, which hasn't arrived. And still more alarmist official #OccupyOakland text msgs.

insidebayarea
RT @eloft: 4 or 5 #union members here after call out email to create picket around #oo camp in case of police raid. #ows

garonsen Gavin Aronsen
The camp's still really dead. Boots Riley is talking strategy with a small group of people on the plaza's SW side.

occupyoakland Occupy Oakland
Numbers low at occ oak and cops have just left the coloseum.

occupyoakland Occupy Oakland
Numbers low at occ oak and cops have just left the coloseum. Need support NOW.

insidebayarea
RT @EastBayExpress: ~200 people (and a big-ass drum) amassed at 14th and Broadway, waiting for the cops. "Whose streets? Our streets!" #oo
[The occupiers gathered at 14 and Broadway]

Oakland Tribune blog estimating 500 at 14th and Broadway here

susie_c Susie Cagle
#occupyoakland 150ish in the intersection at 14 and Broadway, drumming up a storm.

shoeshine Shoshana Walter
union organizers estimate about 300 ppl at 14th/bdway. #occupyoakland

insidebayarea insidebayarea
RT @ProducerBB: #occupyoakland about to go down. A lot more police than protesters this go around.

JoshuaHol Joshua Holland
Group huddled in prayer at interfaith tent. Maybe 3 dozen in intersection of bway and 14th #OO

One can also get some idea of the crowd sizes from various pics (1,2,3,4 - most of these are at 14 and Broadway, where protesters gathered; also, photo 49 in the series here is an aerial photo of 14 and Broadway). 
Also, here's video from Susie Cagle and video from OakFoSho. Since OakFoSho is walking around the area, I think it gives the best sense.

On Nov 2, success with the general strike (and port closure), and a sense that the movement was still building in Oakland (potentially even greater things to come shortly). Only 11 days later, OO evicted and able to only recruit a relatively smallish number of defenders.
From above - mic check oakland: "I suppose we'll all have to wait and see." [i.e. We'll need to wait for the next raid to determine whether support has been lost due to use of Black Bloc].
So the raid's now happened. Empirically, as an effective protest strategy, how's Black Bloc and unrestricted diversity of tactics working out?

Worth reading: "This is what the people of Oakland think of Black Block"